Manila Bulletin
Without MECQ, it may take 10 weeks to reverse COVID-19 upward trend -OCTA Research
The OCTA Research team has recommended that the government implement a modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) due to the significant rise in COVID-19 cases in the country.
This recommendation comes after the Philippines recorded over 9,000 new COVID-19 infections on Friday, a new daily record.
Dr. Butch Ong of UP OCTA Research stated that a two-week MECQ, similar to what was implemented last year, could help slow down the increase in cases and allow for the subsequent reopening of the economy.
The COVID-19 reproduction number is currently at 1.94, and OCTA Research projects daily cases to reach 11,000 by the end of March.
Dr. Ong noted that relying solely on localized lockdowns would take too long to show improvements, potentially straining the healthcare system for an additional ten weeks.
The Department of Health (DOH) has already reported that the bed capacity for COVID-19 patients in major Metro Manila hospitals is at a 'high risk' level, indicating a challenging situation for the healthcare system.
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An OCTA Research fellow stated that the "GCQ bubble" restrictions in Metro Manila and surrounding areas are unlikely to lower the COVID-19 reproduction number to 1 within two weeks.
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OCTA Research stated that it is still too early to determine if the NCR Plus bubble is effective in curbing COVID-19 cases, as the reproduction number in Metro Manila remains around 2.
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The reproduction number of COVID-19 in the NCR Plus bubble has decreased, with OCTA Research noting a 19% increase in average daily cases from March 25 to April 1, a significant drop from the 60% growth rate prior to the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ).
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Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) Undersecretary Epimaco Densing III stated that it is unlikely for the National Capital Region (NCR) to revert to Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine (MECQ).
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Health experts recommend extending the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in NCR Plus until April 11 to give the healthcare system more time to prepare, as hospitals in Metro Manila and surrounding provinces are at critical levels for COVID-19 bed occupancy.
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