Manila Bulletin
COVID-19 reproduction rate in Metro Manila ‘unlikely’ to go down to 1 in 2 weeks - OCTA
An OCTA Research fellow stated that the "GCQ bubble" restrictions in Metro Manila and surrounding areas are unlikely to lower the COVID-19 reproduction number to 1 within two weeks.
Professor Guido David explained that reducing the reproduction number from its current rate of 2.1 to 1 typically takes around 28 days, as observed during a previous surge.
He expressed that even achieving a reproduction number of 1.5 within the two-week period would be considered optimistic.
The "bubble" encompasses Metro Manila, Cavite, Rizal, Bulacan, and Laguna, with a temporary ban on non-essential travel to and from these locations.
However, police later clarified that residents within the bubble are not restricted from traveling within these areas.
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The reproduction rate of COVID-19 in the National Capital Region (NCR) has decreased to 1.91 as of March 24, down from 1.99.
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OCTA Research stated that it is still too early to determine if the NCR Plus bubble is effective in curbing COVID-19 cases, as the reproduction number in Metro Manila remains around 2.
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The OCTA Research team has recommended that the government implement a modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) due to the significant rise in COVID-19 cases in the country.
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Presidential Spokesperson Harry Roque stated that a two-week imposition of stricter general community quarantine (GCQ) in the "NCR plus" bubble is projected to decrease COVID-19 cases by at least 25%.
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Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) Undersecretary Epimaco Densing III stated that it is unlikely for the National Capital Region (NCR) to revert to Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine (MECQ).
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