Manila Bulletin
OCTA: Too early to say if NCR+ bubble working
OCTA Research stated that it is still too early to determine if the NCR Plus bubble is effective in curbing COVID-19 cases, as the reproduction number in Metro Manila remains around 2.
The NCR Plus bubble, which restricts travel in and out of Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Rizal, and Laguna, is in effect from March 22 to April 4.
OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David advised that additional restrictions may be necessary if case numbers do not decrease sufficiently after April 4.
If the reproduction number does not drop from 2.0 to 1.5 within two weeks, daily cases in Metro Manila could peak at 6,200.
In a more optimistic scenario, daily cases in Metro Manila could reach 5,000 if the reproduction number falls below 1.0.
OCTA Research had previously projected that daily COVID-19 cases in the country could reach up to 10,000 by the end of March.
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An OCTA Research fellow stated that the "GCQ bubble" restrictions in Metro Manila and surrounding areas are unlikely to lower the COVID-19 reproduction number to 1 within two weeks.
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The reproduction rate of COVID-19 in the National Capital Region (NCR) has decreased to 1.91 as of March 24, down from 1.99.
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The Philippine government has implemented stricter quarantine measures, creating an 'NCR Plus' bubble encompassing Metro Manila, Rizal, Bulacan, Cavite, and Laguna, effective from March 22 to April 4.
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The OCTA Research team has recommended that the government implement a modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) due to the significant rise in COVID-19 cases in the country.
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An OCTA Research fellow proposed considering a "soft" modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) as a last resort if current government interventions fail to curb the spread of COVID-19.
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