Manila Bulletin
OCTA: NCR’s COVID-19 cases to drop below 3K if reproduction number holds at 0.85
The OCTA Research Group forecasts that Metro Manila's daily COVID-19 cases could fall below 3,000 if the reproduction number is sustained at 0.85.
From April 25 to May 1, the reproduction rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) was observed at 0.83.
If this rate holds at 0.85, daily new cases are projected to be 3,000 for May 2-8 and 2,800 for May 9-15.
The NCR has seen an 18 percent decrease in new cases over the past week, with the current average being 43 percent lower than the peak.
However, an increase in the reproduction rate could lead to a reassessment of current quarantine restrictions within the NCR Plus bubble.
The City of Navotas previously recorded the lowest average daily attack rate in the NCR.
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COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila have decreased by 46 percent from its peak, averaging around 3,000 daily cases.
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The OCTA Research Group suggests that quarantine protocols in Metro Manila and surrounding provinces could be relaxed if daily COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) decrease to less than 2,000.
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The Department of Health (DOH) reported a decrease in the average daily attack rate (ADAR) of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) over the past two weeks.
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Metro Manila mayors will recommend a quarantine classification for May to the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) this afternoon, April 27.
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The reproduction rate of COVID-19 in Quezon City has dropped to 1.23, a significant decrease from last week's 1.59, according to OCTA Research.
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