Manila Bulletin
Effect of MECQ 'flexi' known by next week -- OCTA Research
COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila have decreased by 46 percent from its peak, averaging around 3,000 daily cases.
The reproduction rate in Metro Manila is at 0.82, indicating a downward trend.
The previous enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) and modified ECQ (MECQ) until April 30 are credited for this improvement.
OCTA Research is still assessing the effect of the current flexible MECQ, which began on May 1, and expects results by next week.
Despite the decrease, Metro Manila still has the highest number of active cases nationwide, with 27,647 as of May 3.
Nationwide, daily COVID-19 cases have fallen below 8,000 from a peak of over 10,000, though the decrease is slower in some areas.
It remains too early to determine if restrictions can be eased after May 14, as the downward trend in Metro Manila is considered unstable.
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OCTA Research forecasts that Metro Manila may report fewer than 1,900 daily COVID-19 cases by May 14.
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The OCTA Research Group suggests that quarantine protocols in Metro Manila and surrounding provinces could be relaxed if daily COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) decrease to less than 2,000.
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The OCTA Research Group forecasts that Metro Manila's daily COVID-19 cases could fall below 3,000 if the reproduction number is sustained at 0.85.
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President Duterte has extended the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in the NCR-plus bubble area (Metro Manila, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, and Laguna) until May 14, 2021.
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The NCR Plus bubble, encompassing Metro Manila and the provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal, may transition to a General Community Quarantine (GCQ) by May 14 due to a decrease in healthcare utilization rates.
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