Manila Bulletin
DOH notes decrease in NCR's average COVID-19 daily attack rate
The Department of Health (DOH) reported a decrease in the average daily attack rate (ADAR) of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) over the past two weeks.
The ADAR in the NCR dropped to 25 cases per 100,000 individuals from April 18 to May 1, a decrease from the 34 cases per 100,000 recorded from April 4 to April 17.
Despite the decline, the current ADAR remains above the government's threshold of seven cases per 100,000 for high-risk classification, indicating a continued strain on the health system.
To address this, the government has increased the number of dedicated COVID-19 beds in hospitals to 33,628 and ICU beds to 2,849.
Additionally, the national growth rate of COVID-19 cases has improved, shifting from an 11 percent increase four weeks ago to a current two-week growth rate of -15 percent.
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OCTA Research forecasts that Metro Manila may report fewer than 1,900 daily COVID-19 cases by May 14.
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The OCTA Research Group forecasts that Metro Manila's daily COVID-19 cases could fall below 3,000 if the reproduction number is sustained at 0.85.
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COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila have decreased by 46 percent from its peak, averaging around 3,000 daily cases.
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Metro Manila's intensive care unit (ICU) utilization rate has dropped to 71 percent as of April 26, down from approximately 79 percent in March.
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The OCTA Research Group suggests that quarantine protocols in Metro Manila and surrounding provinces could be relaxed if daily COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) decrease to less than 2,000.
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