Manila Bulletin
COVID-19 reproduction rate in NCR drops to 1.91 -- OCTA
The reproduction rate of COVID-19 in the National Capital Region (NCR) has decreased to 1.91 as of March 24, down from 1.99.
However, OCTA Research stated it is too early to determine if this signifies a sustained downward trend in the NCR.
The number of new COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila averaged 3,804 per day over the past week, an increase of 61 percent compared to the previous week.
The daily attack rate in NCR increased to 27.2 per 100,000 of the population, classifying the region as "high risk".
Furthermore, the positivity rate in NCR was measured at 18 percent over the past week, exceeding the World Health Organization's standard of five percent.
The NCR is currently under a general community quarantine (GCQ) bubble implemented on March 22 and set to remain in effect until April 4, 2021, to curb the surge in COVID-19 cases.
A reproduction number of one or higher signifies ongoing transmission of the virus.
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An OCTA Research fellow stated that the "GCQ bubble" restrictions in Metro Manila and surrounding areas are unlikely to lower the COVID-19 reproduction number to 1 within two weeks.
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OCTA Research stated that it is still too early to determine if the NCR Plus bubble is effective in curbing COVID-19 cases, as the reproduction number in Metro Manila remains around 2.
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The OCTA Research team has recommended that the government implement a modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) due to the significant rise in COVID-19 cases in the country.
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Hospitals in the National Capital Region may reach full capacity by the first week of April if COVID-19 cases continue to surge and the reproduction number remains high, according to OCTA Research.
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Presidential Spokesperson Harry Roque stated that a two-week imposition of stricter general community quarantine (GCQ) in the "NCR plus" bubble is projected to decrease COVID-19 cases by at least 25%.
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