Finance chief: nCoV unlikely to hit PH economy significantly

Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III assured that the novel coronavirus (nCoV) outbreak is unlikely to significantly impact the Philippine economy, maintaining the GDP growth projection of 6.5 to 7.5 percent for 2020.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia downplayed the nCoV's impact on tourism as short-term, though preliminary estimates suggest a less than one percentage point reduction in GDP if the threat persists for the entire year.

Pernia cited NEDA estimates that a one-month nCoV threat could slash GDP by 0.06%, while a duration up to June could impact growth by around 0.3%, and a full year would mean a 0.7% impact.

These projections are based on assumptions of a 100% reduction in Chinese inbound tourism and a 10% decrease in other foreign tourists.

Dominguez expressed comfort that local transmissions of the virus have been limited outside of China.

Some Chinese economists expect nCoV to cost their economy about $60 billion this quarter and shave 2 percentage points off their economic growth.