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Coronavirus may delay PHL economic recovery
ANZ Research is maintaining its 6.2% GDP growth forecast for the Philippines in 2020, pending Q1 data amid the COVID-19 outbreak.
The economic recovery is still expected, but its timeline is delayed due to the epidemic's effects on tourism, remittances, and trade.
COVID-19 could reduce the Philippines' first-quarter GDP output by as much as 0.42 percentage point.
The full-year impact on GDP remains uncertain, contingent on the outbreak's scale, duration, and the economy's rebound speed.
The most significant economic blow is anticipated in the first quarter, with recovery projected for the second half, supported by monetary and fiscal stimulus.
ANZ Research foresees a relatively modest impact on the full-year growth due to these factors.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is also expected to implement another 25-basis-point policy rate cut in the second quarter, following a similar reduction in early February.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects the Philippine economy to grow around 6.3% in 2020, with first-quarter growth expected to be close to this figure.
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Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III assured that the novel coronavirus (nCoV) outbreak is unlikely to significantly impact the Philippine economy, maintaining the GDP growth projection of 6.5 to 7.5 percent for 2020.
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The National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) estimates that a prolonged coronavirus outbreak could reduce the Philippine economy by as much as 0.7% of the gross domestic product (GDP) if it lasts until December.
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Moody's Investors Service has lowered its 2020 economic growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.1 percent from 6.2 percent due to the COVID-19 outbreak, citing spillovers from slower growth in the region, primarily the impact from China.
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Malacañang is confident that the Philippine economy will recover from the effects of COVID-19 due to the government's proactive and hands-on approach.
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