S&P raises Philippines' 2025 GDP forecast to 5.9%, citing economic resilience

S&P Global Ratings expects strong domestic demand and economic resilience to bolster growth in several Asian countries, including the Philippines, despite US tariff policies.

The credit rater increased its 2025 GDP forecast for the Philippines from 5.7 percent to 5.9 percent due to reduced bilateral tariffs between the U.S. and China, though HSBC has a slightly lower projection of 5.4 percent for this year.

HSBC ASEAN economist Aris Dacanay noted that while uncertainties remain regarding US tariff policies, robust domestic consumption, improvements in credit growth, import capital inflows, and lower inflation are expected to support the economy.

First quarter GDP grew by 5.4 percent compared to the previous quarter's 5.3 percent, aligning with S&P Global Ratings' forecast for continued economic resilience within the government's inflation target range of 2-4 percent until 2026.

Dacanay projects a gradual acceleration in growth for the second half of 2025 and forecasts Philippine GDP to reach 5.6 percent by 2026, driven by improvements in consumption, investments, service exports, and debt servicing.