Philippine growth forecast revised downward due to global uncertainties

The Philippine economic team revised its growth forecasts for this year and the next three years due to heightened global uncertainties, including escalating tensions in the Middle East and potential US tariffs.

At a briefing after the 191st Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) meeting, Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman announced that the economic growth assumption for 2025 was revised downward to 5.5% to 6.5%, from the previous target of 6% to 8%. The forecast for 2026-2028 was also reduced.

Despite these challenges, Pangandaman highlighted that the country remains one of the fastest-growing economies in ASEAN driven by robust domestic demand and structural reforms such as the CREATE MORE Act and PPP Code.

Goods exports are expected to contract by 2% this year while goods imports are projected to expand by 3.5%, according to the DBCC. The budget deficit is also expected to widen, reaching 5.5% of GDP in 2025 from a previous estimate of 5.3%. For 2026-2028, deficits are forecasted to be higher than initially projected.

Department of Economy, Planning, and Development Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said that for the country to reach the low end of its target this year, GDP must grow by at least 5.5%.