JCER sees slow PH recovery, forecasts 6.6% GDP growth

Japan's think tank JCER forecasts a slow Philippine economic recovery in 2021 due to uncertain vaccine rollout and ongoing pandemic.

JCER projects GDP growth at 6.6% for 2021, compared to its previous forecast of 5.9%, but notes that consumption and capital formation will remain weak.

Moody's Analytics predicts a slower recovery in the Philippines until the fourth quarter when vaccinations start making an impact, projecting GDP growth of 6.3%. This is below the government’s target range of 6.5-7.5%.

NEDA Undersecretary Rosemarie Edillon remains optimistic about hitting the economic targets if vaccine rollout accelerates in the second half of 2021.

Moody's Analytics and NEDA both agree that the Philippine economy will only exceed pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022.