Philippine economy set for worst post-war recession

The Philippine economy is expected to see a slower economic contraction in the fourth quarter of 2020 due to easing COVID-19 quarantine measures, but it will still experience its worst post-war recession.

Morgan Stanley projects a 6% year-on-year decline in Q4 GDP, bringing full-year contraction to 8.8%, while Ateneo economists predict a 9.3% drop for the same quarter and an overall 9.8% contraction for 2020.

Ateneo economists warn that without significant progress against COVID-19, the economy could grow by only 2.9% in 2021, with recovery to pre-pandemic levels taking three or more years.