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Tariff uncertainty clouds PHL growth outlook
The Philippine economy is projected to grow by six percent in the first quarter, a slight reduction from earlier estimates due to uncertainties stemming from US tariff concerns.
The University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) has lowered its Q1 2025 GDP forecast by 0.2 percentage point to six percent.
This projected growth rate is an improvement compared to the 5.9-percent expansion in the first quarter of the previous year.
Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto and National Economic and Development Authority Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan also expect first-quarter GDP growth to have settled at 6%.
The uncertainty is linked to tariffs imposed by the US, including a 10-percent baseline tax on imports from all countries.
The Philippines has been hit with 17% tariffs on its exports to the US, but these have been suspended for 90 days.
Global uncertainty remains elevated due to these tariff policies and retaliatory measures by China and the European Union.
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ANZ Research predicts the Philippine economy will slow to 5% growth in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026, falling short of the government's 6-8% target.
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The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) forecasts that the Philippines might fall below its six percent economic growth target for 2025 due to the impact of reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States.
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its economic growth forecast for the Philippines for 2025 to 5.5%, down from a previous projection of 6.1%.
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Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman stated that there is no immediate need to adjust the government's 6-8% GDP growth target for 2025.
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The World Bank has lowered its economic growth projections for the Philippines for 2025, 2026, and 2027, citing global trade policy uncertainties and an anticipated slowdown in worldwide economic activity.
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