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IMF cuts 2025 growth outlook on Philippines to 5.5%
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its economic growth forecast for the Philippines for 2025 to 5.5%, down from a previous projection of 6.1%.
The IMF also downgraded its 2026 GDP growth projection to 5.8 percent from 6.3 percent.
These downward revisions reflect the lower-than-expected growth outturn in the fourth quarter of 2024, bringing the full-year average to 5.7 percent last year.
External developments, including the direct impact of higher tariffs on the Philippines' goods exports to the US and downward revisions to trading partners' growth, contributed to the downgrade.
US President Donald J. Trump announced on April 2 reciprocal tariffs on nearly all of its trading partners, with a baseline rate of 10%, which contributes to heightened global uncertainty.
If realized, the 5.5% GDP growth in 2025 would be the slowest growth rate for the Philippines in five years, excluding the pandemic-induced recession in 2020.
The IMF's projected growth for 2025 and 2026 remains below the Philippine government's target of six to eight percent.
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News Sources
See how different news organizations are covering this story. Below are the original articles from various Philippine news sources that contributed to this summary.
The World Bank has lowered its economic growth projections for the Philippines for 2025, 2026, and 2027, citing global trade policy uncertainties and an anticipated slowdown in worldwide economic activity.
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ANZ Research predicts the Philippine economy will slow to 5% growth in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026, falling short of the government's 6-8% target.
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The Philippine economy is projected to grow by six percent in the first quarter, a slight reduction from earlier estimates due to uncertainties stemming from US tariff concerns.
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Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman stated that there is no immediate need to adjust the government's 6-8% GDP growth target for 2025.
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The World Bank projects the Philippines will achieve upper middle-income economy status by 2027, a year later than the current administration's target of 2026.
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