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S&P trims Philippines 2020 growth outlook
S&P Global has lowered its 2020 growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.1% from 6.2% due to the anticipated impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19).
The debt rater predicts that supply chain disruptions, rather than a decline in tourism, will be the primary factor affecting the Philippine economy.
Trade with China, which constitutes approximately 15% of the Philippines' total trade, is particularly vulnerable.
However, the Philippines is expected to be one of the 'least affected' economies in the Asia-Pacific region by the outbreak.
This is partly because tourism-related exports make up only 3% of GDP, with less than a fifth of visitors coming from China.
S&P Global also suggested that monetary officials in Asia might implement policy measures to mitigate the economic effects of the Covid-19 outbreak.
The debt rater maintained its 2021 growth projection for the Philippines at 6.4%.
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News Sources
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Moody's Investors Service has lowered its 2020 economic growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.1 percent from 6.2 percent due to the COVID-19 outbreak, citing spillovers from slower growth in the region, primarily the impact from China.
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Fitch Solutions has lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2020 to 2.6 percent from 2.7 percent, citing the significant impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19).
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ANZ Research is maintaining its 6.2% GDP growth forecast for the Philippines in 2020, pending Q1 data amid the COVID-19 outbreak.
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Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin Diokno stated that the recent 25-basis point interest rate cut on February 6 is currently enough to cushion the effects of the novel coronavirus outbreak on domestic demand.
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The Department of Tourism (DOT) anticipates a P42.9 billion loss in revenue from February to April due to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
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