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Philippine economy expected to grow over 6% in 2025-2026
The World Bank forecasts the Philippine economy to grow by 6.1% in 2025, positioning it as Southeast Asia's second fastest-growing economy after Vietnam.
This projection aligns with the Philippine government's growth target of 6-8% for 2025 and follows an estimated 5.9% growth in 2024.
The country's robust economic expansion is driven by resilient domestic consumption, supported by a strong labor market and relatively low inflation.
These factors are expected to sustain economic momentum in 2025, with private consumption remaining firm.
Department of Finance Secretary Ralph Recto expressed optimism that the country's economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 surpassed the 5.2 percent growth recorded in the third quarter, bringing the full-year growth close to or above 6 percent.
For 2025, Recto is confident that the economy will expand by over 6 percent, with key drivers including strong domestic consumption and investments.
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The Philippines is projected to be the second-fastest growing economy in the ASEAN region in 2025, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast of 6.3%, according to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has maintained its projection of 6.1% economic growth for the Philippines in 2025 and 6.3% for 2026, citing robust domestic demand, disinflation, easing monetary policy, and robust public spending.
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Economists forecast the Philippine economy grew by 5.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024, accelerating from the 5.2% growth in the third quarter, but likely falling short of the government's 6% to 6.5% target for the full year.
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HSBC projects that the Philippine economy will lead growth in the ASEAN region in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 4.8 percent for ASEAN-6 economies, driven by strong domestic consumption and investment.
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The Philippine economy expanded by 5.8% in the first three quarters of 2024, retaining its position as one of Asia's top-performing economies, despite falling short of the government's target growth rate.
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