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IMF sees faster PHL growth until 2026
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has maintained its projection of 6.1% economic growth for the Philippines in 2025 and 6.3% for 2026, citing robust domestic demand, disinflation, easing monetary policy, and robust public spending.
The IMF also kept its 5.8% GDP growth forecast for the Philippines for 2024.
Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto stated that the Philippines likely failed to hit its 6-6.5% growth goal for 2024 due to typhoons, but expects growth to surpass 6% in 2025.
The projected growth rates for 2025 and 2026 fall within the Philippine government's targets of 6.0% to 8.0%.
The IMF highlighted several downside risks to the near-term economic outlook, including volatile commodity prices, supply shocks, geopolitical tensions, prolonged tight monetary policies in advanced economies, economic slowdowns in major economies, severe natural disasters, and potential setbacks in reform momentum or benefits.
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The World Bank forecasts the Philippine economy to grow by 6.1% in 2025, positioning it as Southeast Asia's second fastest-growing economy after Vietnam.
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The Philippines is projected to be the second-fastest growing economy in the ASEAN region in 2025, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast of 6.3%, according to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).
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HSBC projects that the Philippine economy will lead growth in the ASEAN region in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 4.8 percent for ASEAN-6 economies, driven by strong domestic consumption and investment.
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The Philippine economy expanded by 5.8% in the first three quarters of 2024, retaining its position as one of Asia's top-performing economies, despite falling short of the government's target growth rate.
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Economists forecast the Philippine economy grew by 5.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024, accelerating from the 5.2% growth in the third quarter, but likely falling short of the government's 6% to 6.5% target for the full year.
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