OCTA: NCR COVID-19 reproduction number drops to 1.20

The COVID-19 reproduction number in Metro Manila has dropped to 1.20 as of January 19, according to OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David.

The one-week growth rate of new COVID-19 cases in the NCR has fallen to -42%, a trend also observed in Bulacan, Cavite, and Rizal.

Despite the decrease, the National Capital Region remains classified as 'high risk'.

The average daily attack rate (ADAR) in NCR has decreased to 61 per 100,000 individuals, down from over 100.

OCTA Research extrapolates that the positivity rate in NCR may now be at 40%.

If current trends continue, Metro Manila could see fewer than 1,000 new COVID-19 cases daily by Valentine's Day, moving towards moderate risk.

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