Manila Bulletin
COVID-19 reproduction number in NCR down to 1.53 -- OCTA Research
The reproduction rate of COVID-19 in the National Capital Region (NCR) has decreased to 1.53, down from 1.88 before the reimposition of enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), according to OCTA Research.
This means each infected person is estimated to infect 1.53 other individuals.
OCTA Research projects the reproduction rate may further dip to 1.2 or 1.3 by the end of the second week of ECQ.
The NCR recorded a 10-percent growth rate in average daily COVID-19 cases in the past week, a significant decrease from previous rates as high as 70%.
Negative growth rates have been observed in Pasay, Marikina, Makati, Parañaque, and Manila, which is a welcome development.
However, hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) bed utilization rates in NCR remain high despite the decrease in the reproduction rate.
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The reproduction number of COVID-19 in the NCR Plus bubble has decreased, with OCTA Research noting a 19% increase in average daily cases from March 25 to April 1, a significant drop from the 60% growth rate prior to the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ).
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The OCTA Research Group stated that the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) in the National Capital Region (NCR) Plus bubble was "effective."
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OCTA Research is recommending an additional week of Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) in the NCR Plus bubble to continue curbing the rising COVID-19 cases.
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The Department of Health (DOH) stated that the reported decrease in COVID-19 cases is artificial and not indicative of a slowdown in transmission.
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The Philippines is projected to surpass 1 million total COVID-19 cases by the end of April, according to OCTA Research.
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