NCR COVID-19 positivity rate hits 52%

The COVID-19 positivity rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) has increased to 52% as of January 10, 2022, though the rapid increase has slowed slightly, possibly indicating that infections are close to peaking.

OCTA Research Fellow Dr. Guido David noted that at such a high positivity rate, testing capacity is strained, potentially hindering clear visibility of the pandemic situation.

He expressed hope that the positivity rate would not exceed 60%, warning that a rate beyond 50% would lead to a significant loss of visibility into the pandemic's trajectory.

The number of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila increased by 785% between December 26 and January 8, with average daily attack rates exceeding 50 cases per 100,000 population.

The Philippines recorded 26,458 new infections on January 8, the highest daily count since the pandemic began, with the NCR accounting for 61% of new cases in the preceding two weeks.

Cases are also rising in other regions such as Calabarzon and Central Luzon, and beginning to increase in many other parts of the country.

Daily cases nationwide could reach 35,000 this week, with 20,000 coming from the NCR, though this figure might not be reached if the NCR peaks soon.

The NCR, along with 14 other cities and provinces, remains under Alert Level 3 until January 15, with restrictions on establishment capacities for vaccinated individuals and employees.

David suggested that after the peak, cases might decrease rapidly, similar to the experience in South Africa, potentially leading to lower numbers by the end of January.