AMRO cuts PH 2020 growth forecast to 4.5%

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has revised its 2020 growth forecast for the Philippines to 4.5 percent, a significant decrease from its previous 6.2 percent projection, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

AMRO's projections for the Philippines indicate a growth range of 4.0 to 5.0 percent for 2020, with a forecast of 6.4 to 7.0 percent for 2021.

The overall growth projection for the ASEAN+3 region has also been reduced to 2.0 percent for 2020 and is expected to rebound to 5.5 percent in 2021.

The report highlights that structural transformations are now crucial for the region to regain its former dynamism and sustain rapid growth.

AMRO's chief economist, Dr. Hoe Ee Khor, noted that 2019 was marked by various global events, including US-China trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, which were then overshadowed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The global economic and financial market fallout from the pandemic necessitates constant reassessment of the regional outlook.

While the region is expected to decelerate, AMRO anticipates recessions in the US and Europe, with China's GDP growth projected to weaken but still remain positive at 3.5 percent for 2020.

ASEAN countries are implementing strict containment measures and stimulus packages to support their economies, but are still expected to experience sharp weakening with an average growth of 1.1 percent in 2020 before recovering to 5.2 percent in 2021.