ADB forecasts 20.2% drop in PH remittances

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) initially forecast a 20.2% decline in remittances to the Philippines for 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) data shows personal remittances fell by 19.2% in May 2020 year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of decline.

This decline is attributed to the pandemic's impact on global economic activity, travel, and employment, leading to repatriation or employment deferment of many overseas Filipino workers (OFWs).

As of August 4, 2020, over 102,000 OFWs have been repatriated due to the pandemic, with an additional 100,000 more expected to return.

An economist estimates that 300,000 to 400,000 OFWs could lose their jobs as a result of the pandemic.

The ADB report noted that this projected drop poses a risk of poverty for Filipino households reliant on remittances, potentially affecting 8.4% of all remittance-receiving households in a worst-case scenario.

Remittances from the United States accounted for 39.4% of the total cash remittances in May 2020.