Peso may fall below record low P59 due to US dollar strength and domestic factors

The Philippine peso could potentially breach its record low of P59 this year due to external pressures such as Donald J. Trump's presidency and domestic concerns like the midterm elections.

Philippine Institute for Development Studies Senior Research Fellow John Paolo R. Rivera noted that a stronger US dollar, influenced by the Fed's monetary policy and previous fiscal policies, may weaken emerging-market currencies including the PHP.

HSBC economist Aris Dacanay expects the peso to depreciate beyond P59:$1, possibly reaching this level in the second quarter of 2025 due to anticipated tariff risks and global economic conditions.

Reyes Tacandong & Co. Senior Adviser Jonathan L. Ravelas predicts the peso will range between P57.75 and P60 this year, with a possible low of P60 per dollar by year-end.

The midterm elections in May may increase forex volatility as markets anticipate shifts in economic policy or investor confidence based on candidates' platforms.

Other factors influencing the peso's movements include global oil prices and remittances from overseas Filipino workers, which could further weigh on the PHP due to a persistent trade deficit.