NEDA: US tariff measures have minimal impact on Philippine economy

The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) expects recent US tariff measures will have only a minimal positive impact on the Philippine economy.

In a briefing on Monday, NEDA Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said simulations indicate that a 10% tariff on Southeast Asian goods and a 145% rate on Chinese goods could increase Philippine exports to the US by about 2%, while overall exports would rise by around 1.5%. However, this would have less than a 0.5% impact on GDP.

US President Donald Trump had planned to impose a 17% tariff on Philippine goods but announced a 90-day pause on April 9, except for China.

Balisacan emphasized the need for the Philippines to remain competitive and explore new export markets such as the European Union, Middle East, and India to diversify its trade.

Given these conditions, economic growth is unlikely to reach the upper target of 8%, though growth between 6% and 7% remains possible due to lower inflation and interest rates.

For the first quarter of 2025, a 6.0% growth rate is still feasible, but consumption may weaken in the second quarter compared to previous election seasons.