Economists predict inflation within BSP target of 2-4% through 2026

Private sector economists predict inflation will stay within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) target of 2-4% from this year through 2026.

The BSP's latest survey indicates a mean inflation forecast for 2025 at 3.1%, lower than its baseline projection of 3.3%

Economists see the likelihood of inflation settling within the target range at 82.6% in 2025 and 83.5% in 2026, primarily due to easing rice and oil prices.

The BSP warns that if Dubai crude oil prices average above $90 per barrel from this year through 2026, inflation could breach the target band.

Analysts also predict further monetary policy easing for 2025 with a range of 50-100 basis points, while views on the target reverse repurchase rate for 2026 are mixed.

The BSP expects the Philippine economy to grow below potential over the near term due to subdued demand, but sees modest improvement in GDP growth towards the end of 2025 and 2026.