BSP may resume easing cycle by April amid US tariff uncertainties

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is likely to resume its easing cycle by April at the earliest, amid heightened uncertainties from US President Donald Trump's tariffs.

Despite holding interest rates steady last week and pausing its easing cycle temporarily, the BSP remains in an easing mode from a fundamentally tight monetary stance.

Global uncertainties, particularly concerning US tariff policies, could pose risks that might slow down further rate cuts this year, as noted by think tank Capital Economics.

Analysts predict two more rate cuts by the end of 2025, contingent on future data on inflation and economic conditions; however, the exact timing may be delayed due to external factors.

The BSP is also considering reducing the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in April to support economic activity ahead of the midterm elections, while monitoring risks related to global trade tensions.

Uncertainties from the Federal Reserve's guidance and global conditions could complicate further rate cuts in the second half of 2025, with some analysts predicting a range of potential cuts based on evolving economic data.