BSP lowers BOP surplus forecast for 2021, 2022

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) revised its balance of payments (BOP) surplus forecasts for 2021 and 2022 due to current economic developments.

For 2021, the BOP surplus is now projected at USD1.6 billion or 0.4% of GDP, down from a previous forecast of USD4.1 billion.

The narrower surplus reflects a projected reversal of the current account into a deficit of USD4 billion in 2021, driven by faster import growth and a wider trade-in-goods deficit.

For 2022, the BOP is expected to remain in surplus but at a more modest level of USD700 million or 0.2% of GDP, compared to the previous forecast of USD1.7 billion.

Despite the lower forecasts, the BSP noted positive factors such as robust business process outsourcing (BPO) revenues and overseas Filipino remittances, expected foreign direct investments of USD8.5 billion in 2022, and anticipated improvements in global economic conditions.