BSP expects moderate inflation within 2-4% target

Inflation is expected to remain within the government's 2 to 4 percent target range for 2025 and 2026 due to a decline in rice prices, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

The reduction in tariffs on rice imports will lower landed costs of imported rice, leading to moderate inflation in the first half of 2025.

However, inflation could exceed the target range later in 2025 due to base effects from easing commodity price pressures in 2024.

Global crude oil prices are projected to average USD76.75 per barrel for 2025 and USD72.20 per barrel for 2026; if oil prices rise above $100, inflation could breach the target range.

Rice inflation further decreased in February, with a high probability of spillover effects from lower tariffs on imported rice contributing to domestic price stability.