AMRO: PH growth at 5.6% in 2025 despite US tariff

An economist from the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) stated that Philippine economic growth is expected to remain robust despite a 19% US reciprocal tariff.

According to AMRO Group Head and Principal Economist Allen Ng, the direct impact of this tariff on the Philippines will be limited due to the country's more domestically oriented economy.

In its July ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO), AMRO forecasted Philippine economic growth at 5.6% for 2025 and 5.5% for 2026, down from previous projections of 6.3%. The ADB also confirmed that the tariff's direct impact on GDP will be limited.

Ng attributed the revised forecasts to expected slower global growth and a weaker-than-anticipated GDP expansion in the first quarter of this year.

While the tariff may affect exports and business sentiment, Ng emphasized that robust private consumption driven by stable labor markets, low inflation, and strong remittances will continue to support economic growth. ADB Senior Country Economist Jacqueline Connell noted that these developments present an imperative to further strengthen the investment climate in the Philippines.

AMRO expects Philippine inflation to be 1.8% for 2025 and 3.2% for 2026, significantly lower than previous forecasts.