Phivolcs: Big One earthquake probability increases as 2058 nears

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) stated that the probability of a major earthquake, dubbed the "Big One," striking Metro Manila increases as the year 2058 approaches.

While the exact timing of the earthquake cannot be predicted, Phivolcs Director Teresito Bacolcol explained that the estimate is based on the recurrence interval of the West Valley Fault.

The "Big One" is projected to be a magnitude 7.2 earthquake capable of causing widespread devastation in Metro Manila.

This catastrophic event would occur due to a significant movement along the West Valley Fault, which passes through several cities in Metro Manila and surrounding provinces.

The last recorded major movement of the West Valley Fault was in 1658, and its recurrence interval is estimated to be between 400 to 600 years.

Therefore, based on this interval, the next significant movement could potentially happen around 2058, or even later, as Bacolcol noted that the probability of the 7.2 magnitude earthquake recurring increases as the predicted year nears.