Peso to strengthen vs dollar until early 2026

The Philippine peso is projected to continue its appreciation against the US dollar until early 2026, driven by declining inflation, anticipated monetary easing by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, and enhanced trade and investment.

MUFG Global Markets Research forecasts the peso to reach P55.60 per dollar by the third quarter of 2025 and strengthen to P55 by the fourth quarter, with a further projection of P54.50 by the first quarter of 2026.

The peso has been trading around the P55 level since late April, reaching a nearly two-year high last month following a credit rating downgrade of the US by Moody's Ratings.

Global factors, including a pause in US-China tariffs and expectations of more moderate weakness in the Chinese yuan, are also contributing to the peso's strengthening trend.

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