Manila Bulletin
Shift to MGCQ could lead to 2,400 COVID-19 cases daily in Metro Manila, OCTA researchers warn
OCTA Research warns that placing Metro Manila under a modified general community quarantine (MGCQ) by March could lead to a daily surge of 2,400 COVID-19 cases.
This projection is similar to the daily case numbers observed in August 2020, which prompted stricter quarantine measures.
The researchers highlight that the spread of a more contagious UK variant makes this proposed shift particularly risky.
They state that relaxing restrictions in Metro Manila poses a constant threat of a surge due to increased mobility, reduced social distancing, and diminished compliance with health protocols.
OCTA is appealing to the national government to defer proposals to ease age restrictions and place the entire country under less stringent quarantine statuses by March 1.
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The OCTA Research Team observed an upward trend in COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila, with the reproduction number increasing to 1.22.
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Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua proposed placing the entire Philippines under modified general community quarantine (MGCQ) starting March 1 to mitigate hunger and job losses.
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Metro Manila mayors have voted in favor of shifting the National Capital Region (NCR) to modified general community quarantine (MGCQ).
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Eight cities in Metro Manila are currently experiencing an increase in COVID-19 cases, though the overall growth rate for the capital region remains negative.
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President Rodrigo Duterte may be convinced to approve the recommendation for a nationwide modified general community quarantine (MGCQ) by March 1.
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