IMF revises PH 2020 growth forecast to -8.3%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its 2020 growth forecast for the Philippines to -8.3% due to a larger-than-expected economic contraction.

However, the IMF has raised its 2021 growth projection for the country to 7.4%, an increase from its June estimate of 6.8%.

IMF Country Representative Yongzheng Yang attributed the revised 2020 forecast to prolonged social distancing measures and a slower-than-anticipated resolution of the pandemic.

Yang explained that the projected recovery in 2021 is due to base effects from this year's contraction, pent-up demand from relaxed quarantine measures, and continued policy easing from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.

Despite the expected rebound, significant long-term negative effects like bankruptcies and structural unemployment are anticipated.

The IMF's 2020 GDP estimates are within the government's projected range of a negative seven percent to a negative nine percent.

For 2021, the Duterte administration is hoping for a 6.5 to 7.5 percent growth, which is near the IMF's revised 7.4 percent projection.