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IMF further cuts PH growth forecast to 5.1 percent
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has further downgraded its economic growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.1% for 2025, a decrease from its previous projection of 5.4% in October.
The global financial institution maintained its forecast of 5.6% growth for the Philippines in 2026.
This downward revision is attributed to increasing tariffs impacting exports and investment, and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the third quarter.
The IMF noted that economic expansion averaged 5% in the first nine months of 2025, with the third quarter GDP slowing to 4.0%, the weakest in four years.
Inflation is expected to settle at 1.7% in 2025 before climbing to 2.8% in 2026.
Risks to the near-term growth outlook are tilted to the downside, stemming from global trade policy uncertainty, corruption allegations linked to flood control projects, and the impact of extreme climate events.
IMF directors underscored the need to continue prioritizing governance reforms, greater private investment, economic diversification, and resilience to climate shocks to sustain inclusive growth.
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The World Bank has lowered its economic growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.1% for the current year, down from a previous projection of 5.3%.
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The World Bank has lowered its economic growth forecasts for the Philippines from 2025 to 2027, citing domestic shocks including disasters and corruption issues related to flood control.
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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has sharply cut its economic growth forecasts for the Philippines for 2025 and 2026 due to weak infrastructure spending amid corruption probes and natural disasters.
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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its economic growth forecasts for the Philippines for both 2025 and 2026, but the country is still projected to be the second-fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia.
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