Inquirer
Biggest economic decline since waning years of Marcos regime seen
Fitch Solutions Macro Research projects the Philippine economy could contract by as much as 2% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown measures.
The Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) now projects a full-year GDP contraction of 2% to 3.4% for 2020, a deepening of the forecast from late March.
If realized, the worst-case 3.4% contraction would be the fastest pace of economic shrinkage since 1985.
In the first quarter of 2020, the Philippines' Gross Domestic Product (GDP) already fell by 0.2%, the first contraction since the fourth quarter of 1998.
The government initially blamed the first-quarter GDP decline on the Taal eruption, early travel restrictions, and the nationwide lockdown.
NEDA Acting Secretary Karl Kendrick T. Chua is optimistic the economy can post growth in the last two quarters, marking a 'gradual recovery'.
For 2021, the DBCC expects the country to recover with a GDP growth of 7.1% to 8.1%.
The budget deficit for 2020 is projected to reach P1.56 trillion or 8.1% of GDP.
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The Philippine economy unexpectedly declined by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2020, marking the first contraction since the fourth quarter of 1998.
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Moody's Investors Service projects that the Philippine economy will contract by 2 percent in 2020, a more pessimistic forecast than the government's own estimates.
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The unemployment rate in the Philippines is projected to reach double digits, its highest in 15 years, due to the ongoing economic recession.
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Philippine share prices declined on Friday, with the PSEi losing 0.55%, due to investor concerns over the economic repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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The Philippine peso weakened against the US dollar on Thursday, influenced by the country's economic contraction in the first quarter of 2020.
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