Economists see PH inflation below 2% amid stable prices

Most economists anticipate the Philippines' inflation rate for the year to remain below 2 percent, driven by stable food and fuel prices.

Analysts from Citi forecast inflation to settle at 1.7 percent this year and 2.8 percent in 2026, slightly lowering their previous estimates.

These projections are within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' target band of 2 to 4 percent, but higher than the 1.4 percent recorded in June.

Factors contributing to lower inflation include improved rice supply and stable poultry prices, though a slight increase is expected in the fourth quarter.

However, concerns exist that US President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on US imports could accelerate inflation to 2.5 percent and introduce currency volatility.

Bank of the Philippine Islands chief economist Jun Neri said the slower rice disinflation could push up overall inflation to 3 percent by November.

Analysts from Chinabank said poultry prices signal continued low inflation rates as local markets maintain enough supply from Brazil's exports.

Citi expects the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to implement policy rate cuts in August and October this year, and in February 2026, to bring the rate down from 5.25 percent to 4.5 percent.