Analysts see PH inflation within BSP target for 2025-2026

Private sector analysts project that the Philippines' headline inflation will remain within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)'s target range of two to four percent for both 2025 and 2026.

The BSP's latest survey of external forecasters shows a mean inflation forecast of 3.1% for 2025 and 3.2% for 2026, both lower than the BSP's projections.

There is an 82.6% likelihood that inflation will settle within the target range this year and an 83.5% probability for 2026.

Inflation expectations are noted to be well-anchored, with risks broadly balanced and inflation expected to remain low and manageable.

The within-target inflation outlook is mainly driven by easing rice and oil prices.

Downside risks include sustained reductions in rice prices, partly due to Executive Order No. 62 which reduced rice import tariffs to 15% until 2028, and favorable global oil prices.

Conversely, upside risks include potential supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions, adverse weather, and increases in electricity rates, alongside unexpected wage adjustments and protectionist trade policies from the US.