China's vessel presence around Bajo de Masinloc doubles

A security think tank, SeaLight, reported a significant increase in China's presence and activities around Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal) over the past year.

The number of China Coast Guard (CCG) and Chinese maritime militia (CMM) vessels broadcasting automatic identification system (AIS) signals near the shoal more than doubled between May 2024 and April 2025 compared to the previous 12-month period, rising from 57 ships to 78.

During the recent period, 1,573,000 AIS broadcasts were recorded, a substantial rise from the 724,000 broadcasts recorded from May 2023 to April 2024.

SeaLight's director, Ray Powell, noted that the area of intense Chinese maritime activity around the shoal also expanded dramatically.

Chinese ships were observed moving in various directions, with a particular emphasis towards the east, closer to the Philippine mainland.

In response, Philippine patrols around Bajo de Masinloc also increased, with Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) vessels transmitting 217,000 AIS signals from 11 ships between May 2024 and April 2025, up from 55,000 signals from seven ships the previous year.