Manila Bulletin
Diokno sees progressive fall in inflation to continue
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) forecasts the inflation rate for April 2020 to be between 1.9% and 2.7%.
BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno is inclined to predict the lower end of the forecast range, anticipating a progressive fall in inflation.
The collapse in oil prices is expected to moderate inflationary pressures, tempering the impact of higher food prices and electricity rate adjustments.
For 2020, the Monetary Board has revised the inflation target range to 1.75% to 3.75%, and the overall inflation forecast for the year has been lowered to 2.0% from a previous projection of 2.2%.
The BSP expects inflation to fall below two percent in the third quarter of 2020 due to the COVID-19 lockdown and again in the first quarter of 2021, before picking up nearer the government target by the second quarter of 2021.
Key considerations for the inflation forecast include global crude oil prices, weakened global economic prospects due to COVID-19, global non-oil prices, and the expectation of a zero-bound US Federal funds rate until 2022.
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