S&P, AMRO lower PH economic growth forecasts

S&P Global Ratings and the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) have lowered their economic growth forecasts for the Philippines.

S&P Global cut its projection to 4.8% this year from 5.6%, while AMRO lowered its forecast to 5.2% from 5.6%.

Both downgrades are attributed to the slower-than-expected growth in the third quarter, which clocked in at 4%, the slowest in over four years.

This slowdown is linked to a slump in state spending and consumption due to corruption allegations surrounding public infrastructure projects and severe weather.

Global financial volatility and US tariff policy also present headwinds to private consumption and exports.

AMRO projects GDP growth of 5.2% in 2025 and 5.3% in 2026, moderating from 5.7% in 2024.

Despite the third-quarter slowdown, AMRO expects growth to regain momentum once project suspensions are resolved and confidence stabilizes, noting a significant decrease in inflation and improvements in the labor market.