The Daily Tribune
AMRO projects moderate China growth through 2026
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) projects China's economy to grow moderately through 2026, anticipating 4.8 percent expansion in 2025 and 4.4 percent in 2026, driven by fiscal stimulus and strong exports.
AMRO highlights that China's economic recovery is uneven, with emerging sectors showing strength while traditional growth drivers are subdued, as the nation transitions to "high-quality growth."
Domestic demand in China continues to be hampered by a slowdown in the real estate sector and low consumer confidence.
Inflation is expected to remain flat, with the CPI projected at 0.0 percent in 2025 and 0.4 percent in 2026, attributed to weak demand and significant competition.
AMRO identifies both domestic issues, such as the property crisis, local government debt, and an aging population, and external risks like U.S. trade restrictions as threats to China's growth.
The report suggests that sustained growth necessitates addressing existing challenges and increasing household incomes.
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