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ADB, ESCAP see Philippines economy growing at least 6% this year
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its Philippine GDP growth forecast for 2025 to six percent, a decrease from its earlier 6.2% projection.
This adjustment reflects challenges such as moderated household spending, influenced by persistent inflation and tight monetary policy, and the lower than expected turnout in Quarter 4 of 2024.
Despite the downgrade, the projected six percent growth for 2025 is expected to be faster than the 5.7% GDP growth in 2024.
The Philippines is anticipated to remain one of Southeast Asia's leading economies in terms of growth in 2025, with projected figures only surpassed by Vietnam and Cambodia.
The ADB maintains its forecast of average inflation at 3% for 2025, while acknowledging potential geopolitical and trade risks.
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The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) revised the full-year 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate upward to 5.7 percent from 5.6 percent.
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The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) forecasts that the Philippines might fall below its six percent economic growth target for 2025 due to the impact of reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States.
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Moody's Analytics has lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.8% from 5.9% due to the anticipated impact of US reciprocal tariffs.
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The Philippine government's economic team, specifically the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), estimates that US reciprocal tariffs of 17% on Philippine exports could reduce the country's gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.1% in the next two years.
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The Philippine government is maintaining its six to eight percent economic growth target for the year, but the upper end of this projection may become unrealistic due to uncertainties arising from the US tariffs on its trade partners.
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