46 party-list groups may win seats in May 2025 polls

A Pulse Asia non-commissioned survey indicates that 46 party-list groups have a statistical chance of winning at least one seat in the May 2025 elections.

Five incumbent party-list groups—Duterte Youth (around 4-6%), Agimat (around 4-6%), ACT-CIS (around 4-6%), 4Ps (around 4-6%), and Senior Citizens (around 4-6%)—are projected to win the maximum of three seats each.

Seven other party-list groups, mostly regional, are likely to win two seats each, including Tingog (3.63%), Uswag Ilonggo (2.48%), and PPP (2.38%).

An additional 34 party-list groups are expected to secure one seat each.

Of the 46 projected winners, 30 are incumbent groups, while 16 are newcomers or returnees.

This projection surpasses the 2022 elections, where only one party-list obtained three seats.

The survey was conducted from April 20 to 24 among 83% of registered voters who gave valid responses.

To secure at least one seat, a party-list group must garner at least 2% of the total votes cast in the party-list election.

Some incumbent party-lists, such as Gabriela Women's Party, Akbayan, and Bagong Henerasyon, appear to be at risk of losing their seats.